Wednesday, the Seattle Mariners held a press conference for one of the least known stars in MLB. Kyle Seager signed a 7 year/100 Million dollar contract to man the hot corner for the M’s for years to come. Seager has averaged a little over 22HR/83 RBI/.262 AVG over his first 3 full seasons in the big leagues. He won a Gold Glove in 2014 and a 5.8 WAR in ’14 was 3rd among AL third basemen.
On Wednesday, Mariners skipper, Lloyd McClendon said that Seager has the chance to win the HR title and MVP one day. So, what would an MVP season look like for Seager?
Here is a quick refresher of the last 7 AL MVPs.
Now let’s look at the numbers from the MVPs. For this article and to help keep it fantasy related I’m just going to use the HR/RBI/AVG numbers from those MVP years. I know more goes into it(WAR, OPS+, etc.) than that but if Seager can approach these “Fantasy” numbers he’ll be in the conversation.
I took the high and low total out from each category to get a better view of what is needed for an MVP season. The average year for an MVP(over the last 7 years) is 35HR/111RBI/.340AVG. As you can see a career year is needed from anyone to win the MVP. We probably won’t see what Miguel Cabrera did in 2012(Triple Crown) and 2013(.348/44/137) anytime soon, unless Mike Trout can do it and he is more than capable. Dustin Pedroia slashed .326/17/83 the year he won MVP but also led the league in hits with 213 and doubles with 54.
Making a Case for Kyle Seager:
We know Seager can hit home runs and drive people in but the thing that is somewhat surprising with him is that he hasn’t hit over .270 yet in his short career. The thing that has held him back the past couple of year is an extended slump at the end of 2013 and the beginning of 2014. Through 19 games last year he was hitting .156/0/2. In game #20 against Houston he found his swing and hit 2 HR and drove in 5 but the 19 games really put him behind. He finished out the year nicely finishing 20th in the MVP voting.
The new look Mariners team will include Nelson Cruz, more than likely hitting in front of Seager and behind Cano, so the chances to drive in runs will be plenty this year. Kyle hit most of his bombs last year at SafeCo(16 of 25) which says a lot about his home run potential. I think he can reach the average MVP year of HR and RBI but the thing that is holding him back so far is the average. I think he will hit .280 or better this year with more protection in the lineup but that is yet to be seen.
Do I think it is possible for Kyle Seager to wear the MVP Crown one day? Yes. It is going to be tough especially with that guy named Mike Trout around. Kyle Seager has proved he is a great player and the M’s paid him for being that player but to be a superstar he has to step his game up even more.
I expect Seager to hit .280+ this year with 26+ HRs and 100+ RBIs, if he can cut out the bad slumps he’s had the last two years. This won’t win him the MVP but it’ll show that he isn’t that far off from being in the running for the MVP as crazy as that would’ve sounded just a few years ago.
-Kyle
Stats Courtesy of Baseball Reference
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