Quick Tips: Fantasy Baseball Draft

Fantasy Baseball drafts are starting across the country and you probably have one very soon. Here are a few quick tips for draft day(and before):

1. Do some research and look at projections at least a day or two before your draft.

2. Research key injuries that happened in the off-season or so far in Spring Training(Chris Sale, Yu Darvish, Cliff Lee, Zach Wheeler, etc.) and players coming off injury(Matt Harvey, Jose Fernandez, Garrett Richards, etc.). Don’t be the guy that drafts the player who is out for the year in the 4th round.

3. Show up to your draft. If at all possible show up and actually draft your team. Auto-pick isn’t a good way to win a Fantasy Baseball Championship. You could end up with the highly ranked players who are hurt or that are past their prime. If you can’t make your draft, pre-rank your players and move all injured players to the “Do not draft” list.

4. Good Luck! If you think you have a bad draft or don’t like your squad, you can always trade guys and add free agents.

Fantasy Rankings: 2nd Base

We continue our way around the diamond with our 2nd base Fantasy Rankings.

Kyle’s Top 3

1. Robinson Cano – New team, same old Robinson Cano in Seattle last year (.314/14 HR/82 RBI). Cano looked to drive the ball in gaps at SafeCo last year and I expect the same this year. He might inch closer to 20 home runs and with a much improved lineup his run total(77 in ’14) should increase as well. Solid #1 2b and a first or second round pick.

2. Jose Altuve – exploded onto the scene last year hitting .341 with 56 SBs and 225(!) hits. Those numbers are going to be really hard to repeat but look for .300+ Avg, 200+ hits and 40+ stolen bases. If Cano isn’t available and you need a second basemen don’t hesitate to pick Altuve.

3. Ian Kinsler – The power numbers are down in Detroit but the runs will approach 100 each year and could sneak close to 20 home runs. Cano and Altuve are the clear top 2 but if you get “stuck” with Kinsler you aren’t weak at that position.

Brent’s Top 3

1. Robinson Cano – With one of the games sweetest swings, you know he’s going to hit and hit well. He is no doubt the #1 2nd baseman. Last years power numbers were down but that’s due to the move to the spacious SafeCo Field as opposed to the sandbox where he used to play in the Bronx.

2. Jose Altuve – What he lacks in power numbers, he more than makes up for in average, runs and stolen bases. He can help your team in a variety of ways and is about as safe as it gets on this list besides Cano.

3. Ian Kinsler – Beginning of the second tier of 2nd basemen. With Kinsler penciled in to bat leadoff, he has a legitimate shot to score 100 runs. All while being one of only a handful of guys on this list that can hit 20+ HRs.

Best of the Rest:

4. Brian Dozier

5. Pedroia – I expect a big bounce back year from Pedroia in Boston. New faces(Pablo/Hanley) help Pedroia’s value when he gets on base in front of them. -KH

6. Jason Kipnis

7. Neil Walker

8. Chase Utley

9. Howie Kendrick

10. Dee Gordon

11. Brandon Phillips

12. Ben Zobrist

Sleepers:

Rougned Odor – Rangers starting 2B could’ve been in my top 12 but just missed the cut. Jurickson Profar is out for the year so Odor has the job to himself, has some pop for a little guy.(KH)

Rougned Odor – After putting up respectable numbers as a 20-year-old rookie in half a season, he now has the opportunity to play 2nd base in Texas full-time. Texas is really high on this kid and you could be rewarded on this late round flyer.(BH)

Nick Franklin – showed signs of being  a good(not great) fantasy player in Seattle. Franklin should be the starting 2B in Tampa and if he plays a full season could hit 20 home runs but will be held back by a low average.

Javier Baez – If you can get past the strikeouts and can get him late enough, he’s definitely worth owning. His power is off the charts and if he figures it out, you’ll be rewarded tenfold.

Deep Sleeper: Jose Peraza – He could be the next coming of Jose Altuve. Second base hasn’t exactly been a tough position to crack in Atlanta so he may get an opportunity sooner rather than later. Monitor the situation because he will likely start the year in the minor leagues.

Winter Meetings – Fantasy Impact – Player Reports

The Winter Meetings are officially starting today and this could be a crazy week for Teams/Players/GMs. Almost all of the FA Pitchers are available and Jon Lester is one who is expected to make a decision soon. Trades are going to be a big focus point this year as most of the big time FA hitters are off the board. Cespedes, Kemp, Brandon Moss and other big names could be wearing a new uniform by the end of the week.

We will keep this page up to date with the latest and greatest signings and trades and how it will impact their Fantasy Baseball Value in 2015.

We hope you are excited as we are for the Winter Meetings and hopefully your team gets better to make a run at the 2015 World Series!

First Major Deal of the Winter Meetings that deals with a legit Fantasy Player: Brandon Moss to Cleveland.

Moss gets to reunite with Tito in Cleveland for whom which he played for in Boston. Moss is a valuable fantasy asset if you use him right. He struggles/never plays against lefties so that is a major weakness. He has big time power and can drive in run which is a big plus.

The Indians just missed out on the playoffs in 2014 and have a strong lineup coming back with names such as Bourn, Brantley, Santana & Yan Gomes in it. The Indians are expected to trade Nick Swisher which makes the Moss acquisition work.

If you are playing in daily leagues look to take Moss in later rounds as a guy that you can plug-in at 1B/OF to help with HR and RBI. Just keep track of any lefty starters he may face because he will probably be out of the lineup that day.

In weekly leagues he is a tough play because he sits or is pulled against lefties, so if you draft Moss you will really have to do your homework weekly to see when it is worth playing him.

Kyle Seager – What an MVP Season would look like.

Wednesday, the Seattle Mariners held a press conference for one of the least known stars in MLB. Kyle Seager signed a 7 year/100 Million dollar contract to man the hot corner for the M’s for years to come. Seager has averaged a little over 22HR/83 RBI/.262 AVG over his first 3 full seasons in the big leagues. He won a Gold Glove in 2014 and a 5.8 WAR in ’14 was 3rd among AL third basemen.

On Wednesday, Mariners skipper, Lloyd McClendon said that Seager has the chance to win the HR title and MVP one day. So, what would an MVP season look like for Seager?

Here is a quick refresher of the last 7 AL MVPs.

Now let’s look at the numbers from the MVPs. For this article and to help keep it fantasy related I’m just going to use the HR/RBI/AVG numbers from those MVP years. I know more goes into it(WAR, OPS+, etc.) than that but if Seager can approach these “Fantasy” numbers he’ll be in the conversation.

I took the high and low total out from each category to get a better view of what is needed for an MVP season. The average year for an MVP(over the last 7 years) is 35HR/111RBI/.340AVG. As you can see a career year is needed from anyone to win the MVP. We probably won’t see what Miguel Cabrera did in 2012(Triple Crown) and 2013(.348/44/137) anytime soon, unless Mike Trout can do it and he is more than capable. Dustin Pedroia slashed .326/17/83 the year he won MVP but also led the league in hits with 213 and doubles with 54.

Making a Case for Kyle Seager:

We know Seager can hit home runs and drive people in but the thing that is somewhat surprising with him is that he hasn’t hit over .270 yet in his short career. The thing that has held him back the past couple of year is an extended slump at the end of 2013 and the beginning of 2014. Through 19 games last year he was hitting .156/0/2. In game #20 against Houston he found his swing and hit 2 HR and drove in 5 but the 19 games really put him behind. He finished out the year nicely finishing 20th in the MVP voting.

The new look Mariners team will include Nelson Cruz, more than likely hitting in front of Seager and behind Cano, so the chances to drive in runs will be plenty this year. Kyle hit most of his bombs last year at SafeCo(16 of 25) which says a lot about his home run potential. I think he can reach the average MVP year of HR and RBI but the thing that is holding him back so far is the average. I think he will hit .280 or better this year with more protection in the lineup but that is yet to be seen.

Do I think it is possible for Kyle Seager to wear the MVP Crown one day? Yes. It is going to be tough especially with that guy named Mike Trout around. Kyle Seager has proved he is a great player and the M’s paid him for being that player but to be a superstar he has to step his game up even more.

I expect Seager to hit .280+ this year with 26+ HRs and 100+ RBIs, if he can cut out the bad slumps he’s had the last two years. This won’t win him the MVP but it’ll show that he isn’t that far off from being in the running for the MVP as crazy as that would’ve sounded just a few years ago.

-Kyle

 

Stats Courtesy of Baseball Reference

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Billy Butler – Oakland A’s – Fantasy 2015 Outlook

Billy Butler, one of our favorite players not only because he likes a good ole Country Breakfast but he is a GIDP master! Butler hit into 21 Double Plays last year which was tied for 8th most in MLB. Casey McGehee(Marlins) led everyone with 31(!) GIDP, Pujols was 2nd on the list and the guy with the best SS glove in the game, Andrelton Simmons, was 3rd. Butler is the only player you will find on the top 10 list of Grounded into Double Play leaders the past 3 seasons. He hit into 20, 28 & 21 those three seasons.

OK! Now back to the important stuff, how will he do in Oakland this year? He hit 9 bombs, drove in 66 runs and hit .271 last year in KC. This is two years removed from his 29/107/.313 season. That being said I believe 2013 was the year we focus on, he hit 15/82/.289. Those are numbers are closer to his fantasy value than his career year of 2012 and this past season.

Butler is fresh off signing a 3yr/30mil contract to go to Oakland & O.co park. O.co isn’t a prime “hitters park”, it isn’t SafeCo bad but it is probably closer to SafeCo than Kauffman in terms of being a hitters park. Bleacher Report did a Hitter Friendly Ballpark article that is a good read(even though I don’t agree with all of them).

The A’s traded away their best hitter in Josh Donaldson already this off-season and are looking to make more moves as I type this. Two names that have been mentioned in trade talks that would really help Billy Butler’s fantasy stock are Justin Upton and Evan Gattis of the Braves. Right now the A’s best hitters other than Butler are Brandon Moss(who doesn’t play against lefties), Brett Lawrie(who can’t stay healthy), Josh Reddick, Derek Norris & CoCo Crisp. Those names don’t exactly scream Fantasy SuperStars, Moss and Norris are must own guys but after that Reddick is okay, CoCo is average and Lawrie has serious upside but can’t stay healthy.

For this articles sake lets assume the Opening Day 2015 lineup are the guys listed above(I’ll update when Billy Beane decides to make his next big splash). Billy Butler is going to be on a team with an average lineup and knowing the A’s, they will still find ways to win but will they score many runs? Butler isn’t a speed demon and doesn’t score many runs anyway. He will be hitting in the middle of the order but won’t have a ton of opportunities with that lineup to drive a lot of people in. The Pitching in the AL West is tough, you have King Felix, Darvish, Weaver, Richards, Shoemaker and Iwakuma just to name a few but he has been facing the Aces in the AL Central his whole career.

With all that being said it is prediction time for Billy Butler of the Oakland Athletics(still weird to type that):

Position eligible: Luckily with the new inter-league schedule he was able to play 30+ games at 1B last year so in all fantasy leagues he will still be able to fill in at 1B/DH.

2015 Prediction

11 HR/76 RBI/.281/.340 OBP

I’ll predict 24 GIDP this year as well.

Butler isn’t a fantasy star and Oakland isn’t going to turn him into one, if you need a backup 1B or Util spot filler mid to late rounds you can look to pick him up but not before then.

-Kyle

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference

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